Who will the Bills play in the playoffs? See the scenarios heading into the final week

BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) – The Buffalo Bills locked up the AFC’s second seed on Sunday after clobbering the Jets, 40-14. That means they’ll host the #7 seed in the first round of the playoffs in two week’s time.

Which teams could be heading to Orchard Park for the postseason opener?

Heading into Week 18, the Bills know their opponent will be one of three teams: the Denver Broncos, the Miami Dolphins, or the Cincinnati Bengals. Here is a look at each scenario.

Standings & Schedule

The Broncos currently hold the 7-seed, but could get jumped if they lose to the Chiefs in the regular-season finale. Here is the schedule for teams in contention:

• Bengals at Steelers, 8 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 4
• Dolphins at Jets, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 5
• Chiefs at Broncos, 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 5

How the Bills could play the Broncos

The most straightforward answer for the Bills playoff opponent involves the Broncos, who can clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie.

The Broncos will be at home against the top-seeded Chiefs, who are likely to rest key players during the game. Betting sites are listing the Broncos as 8.5-point favorites as of Monday.

With a victory (or a tie) against the Chiefs, coach Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix will be heading to Orchard Park on Wild Card Weekend.

If the Broncos lose, the only way they could still get into the playoffs is if both the Dolphins and Bengals lose (or tie).

How the Bills could play the Dolphins

For the Bills to face the Dolphins, two things need to happen: The Broncos need to lose and the Dolphins need to win.

This isn’t that farfetched. The Broncos could lose to the Chiefs, and Bills fans just got a first-hand look at the Jets…

Yes, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed the Dolphins last game and is uncertain for Week 18 due to a hip injury, but, you saw the Jets, right?

How the Bills could play the Bengals

Fans seem to have some consternation over this scenario on social media. Joe Burrow is awesome and the Bengals offense strikes more fear into you than the Broncos or Dolphins. I get it.

For the Bills to face the Bengals, three things need to happen: The Broncos need to lose to the Chiefs, the Dolphins need to lose or tie against the Jets, and the Bengals need to beat the Steelers.

The Steelers might have less to play for if the Ravens lock up the AFC North title earlier Saturday against the Browns, but they won’t want to enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, and this scenario still requires the Broncos and Dolphins to lose must-win games.

Could it happen? Of course, but it’s the longest shot of the three.

Keep score at home

• Broncos win or tie = Bills face Broncos
• Broncos loss + Dolphins win = Bills face Dolphins
• Broncos loss + Dolphins loss or tie + Bengals win = Bills face Bengals
• Broncos loss + Dolphins loss or tie + Bengals loss or tie = Bills face Broncos

Who would the Bills play in the second round of the playoffs?

Should the Bills win their wild card game, they’d be home again in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs will host the lowest remaining seed from Wild Card Weekend, and the Bills would host the highest remaining seed. If seeding holds, it’s looking like a rematch against the Ravens.

An aside

When the NFL playoff format featured six teams, the top two teams in each conference earned a first-round bye. But when a third wild card team was added in 2020, only the #1 seed was given a bye week. It’s a cruel twist for the Bills, who have now finished as the AFC’s #2 seed four times in five seasons since the playoff format changed.