Steelers playoff possibilities: Pittsburgh may get a chance to avenge franchise’s worst-ever postseason defeat

While the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ playoff spot has already been secured, there’s plenty to play for when Mike Tomlin’s team hosts the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night.

As he alluded to Monday, Tomlin wants his team to rid themselves of the stench that comes with a three-game losing streak. A win over the Joe Burrow-led Bengals in Week 18 would not only do that, but it would give the Steelers some much-needed momentum heading into the playoffs. Those are among the reasons why Tomlin is treating this like any other week.

Here’s what we know entering Week 18 regarding the Steelers’ playoff situation. Pittsburgh (10-6) could be seeded as high as No. 3 or as low as No. 6. They’re currently sitting in the fifth spot, but that could change depending on the outcome of three Week 18 games.

Below, we’ll go through each of Pittsburgh’s possible playoff possibilities, starting with the most likely scenario.

Steelers travel to Houston for wild-card round

Houston is already locked into the fourth seed by virtue of their AFC South division title. For this scenario to happen, the Ravens (who play earlier in the day) need to beat the 3-13 Browns and Pittsburgh needs to stay ahead of the Chargers in the standings. The Steelers hold the tiebreaker with the Chargers based on Pittsburgh’s Week 3 win over Los Angeles. The Chargers (10-6) will face the 4-12 Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday.

This would be a winnable game for the Steelers, as the Texans have lost two straight and have lost two of their top receivers (Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell) for the season. Houston did record a 30-6 win over Pittsburgh when the two teams last faced off in Week 4 of the 2023 season.

Steelers face Ravens in Baltimore as sixth seed

The second most likely scenario. For this to come to fruition, the Steelers lose to the Bengals, the Ravens beat the Browns and the Chargers defeat the Raiders. Pittsburgh would then fall to the sixth seed, and the Chargers would be the ones heading to Houston in the first round.

Pittsburgh split its season series with its arch rival. It edged Baltimore at home, 18-16, back in Week 11 on the strength of three forced turnovers and two missed field goals by Ravens kicker Justin Tucker. Baltimore avenged that loss with a 34-17 win back in Week 16 that was fueled by two Russell Wilson turnovers that turned into 14 points for the home team.

If they defeated Baltimore, the Steelers would have to face the top-seeded Chiefs in the first round (the lowest-seeded wild-card winner has to play the top seed in the divisional round), unless the No. 7 seed (either the Broncos, Dolphins or Bengals) is able to upset No. 2 seeded Buffalo in the wild-card round.

Steelers host Chargers in playoff rematch

In this scenario, the Steelers defeat the Bengals and the Ravens suffer a shocking loss to the Browns. Baltimore would then face the Texans in the wild-card round.

This matchup would be a rematch of Pittsburgh’s 20-10 win over the Chargers back on Sept. 22. That was the third of four wins with Justin Fields serving as the Steelers’ starting quarterback. Fields delivered the game-clinching touchdown in that game when he hit Calvin Austin III on a short completion that Austin turned into a 55-yard score.

Pittsburgh faced a limited Justin Herbert in that game, as the Chargers’ quarterback was playing with an ankle injury. Herbert left that game early after re-aggravating the injury.

This game would also be a rematch of what former Steelers head coach Bill Cowher called his worst loss during his 15 seasons in Pittsburgh. A heavy favorite, the 1994 Steelers lost that year’s AFC Championship Game to the Chargers, who prevailed after completing a 43-yard touchdown pass, then stopping the Steelers on fourth-and-goal at the Chargers’ 3-yard-line.

Here’s what Cowher said about that loss during a 2019 interview on “The Dan Patrick Show.”

“It was in Pittsburgh and it was 60 degrees, which probably wasn’t a good omen in itself. It came down to the last play. … Dennis Gipson knocked down the pass, Neil O’Donnell to Barry Foster, and the whole crowd just went silent.

“I’ll always remember that game because it was a game where we were a defensive football team, Barry Foster had 1,700 yards that year. We imposed ourselves on people. Fourth-and-goal on the 3 and I go empty and threw the ball, incomplete pass.

“I go into the locker room and I’m telling the players, ‘There’s no words that I can say that can ease the pain that you’re feeling right now, but just understand that you’ve done a lot for this city, and this is not the end, this is the just beginning of us coming back, being relative again.’

“I told the coaches what an amazing job they did. They made this team better than they ever should be. They pushed all the right buttons.

“I see Mr. Rooney, and I said, ‘I’m sorry Mr. Rooney for letting you down.’ He gave me a little pat on the shoulder. I saw my wife, and she gave me a little peck on the cheek. I walked over to my daughter, and my daughter was 8 at the time, Meagan, she looked at me and said, ‘Dad, why couldn’t you get the ball to Barry Foster? He could have gotten you three yards?’ Hindsight, you’re right, I should have given it to Barry Foster.'”

Pittsburgh was in a similar spot a year later, but this time, the Steelers advanced to the Super Bowl after surviving a last-second Hail Mary throw by then-Colts quarterback and current Chargers head coach, Jim Harbaugh.