Kansas City Chiefs

Question of the Week: What is the Chiefs’ winning formula?

Posted on by Tony

It’s been a “weird” season for the Kansas City Chiefs.

What a strange season.

If I had to summarize my feelings on this Kansas City Chiefs team in one word, weird would be the term I use. They’re currently 11-1 and on track to finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but something is just off with this team. All season, the Chiefs haven’t been able to put together an impressive performance against a serious team, instead finding unique ways to win each week.

This is reflected in their point differential. Despite their impressive record, the Chiefs are 11th in point differential in the NFL. And when you stack up the Chiefs historically to teams with their record at this point of the season, they are not in a good spot.

At the start of the season, this didn’t bother me.

Yes, the Chiefs did have some lucky wins, but all things considered, I thought they played good football to start. The defense continued to look fantastic, and the running game was efficient. Even with wide receiver injuries, the passing game was still there, especially on third down. Despite the close game, I never felt like the Chiefs got away with wins or weren’t playing good football.

That has changed recently.

I would say since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, the Chiefs have been the worse team in every game. But, in those games, besides the Buffalo Bills’ loss, the Chiefs have gotten away with something. Against the Denver Broncos, it was a blocked field goal. Against the Carolina Panthers, it was the Mahomes scramble late.

The Las Vegas Raiders game was the most egregious by far. The Raiders missed three kicks and were in a position to potentially win the game, anyway, but a botched snap ended up being the difference. The Chiefs didn’t put together a good game on either side of the ball, barely pulling out a win against a bottom team in the league.

Just watching the team, they seem to have fundamental problems on both sides of the ball.

On offense, I think we’re starting to see the Chiefs offense bogged down into their issues last season. For the first part of the season, despite their lack of explosive plays, they were brutally efficient at sustaining drives and controlling the game. Except for a terrible Panthers defense, that hasn’t been the case recently.

To me, this starts at offensive tackle. I thought the combination of Jawaan Taylor and Wanya Morris was passable for the first half of the year, but their November play was untenable. Taylor regressed to the worst of his 2023 form, committing constant penalties and looking rough in pass protection. I still do think his run blocking has improved from last year, but that doesn’t matter much. The Chiefs are paying him to be a high-level starter at right tackle when, in reality, he’s well below average.

With Morris, I struggle because I do think he’s injured. The fact that he came back to that Broncos game after being out for three quarters is admirable. And if that’s the case, I give him grace. But purely off just the film, he’s been a total disaster. He’s not getting deep in his sets at all, he’s not turning to cut rushers off, and he’s letting guys just run past him. This looks just like it did near the end of his starts last season, which is concerning.

Another issue on offense is the run game. Since the Buccaneers game, this run game has been bad, and that continued against the Raiders. Except for one 34-yard run by Isiah Pacheco, Pacheco and Kareem Hunt had 13 carries for 23 yards. The Chiefs couldn’t do anything running the ball, which gave them no consistency.

This is turning into last year. The Chiefs have never had explosive plays running the ball, but they consistently got 4-5-yard chunks. Now, those are gone. And when you don’t have explosive runners, it makes your offense so hard. Everything about the offense feels like it’s on Mahomes, and with shaky tackles and no run game, it feels just like last year.

On defense, this is concerning. I outlined the issues the Chiefs had on defense last week, which remained the same this week. The run defense is still good, but the passing defense remains problematic. The Chiefs’ pass rush played better against the Raiders, but that was mainly Chris Jones having a great game. Besides that, they got little pressure.

The problem with that is the Chiefs’ defense is getting exposed when they’re blitzing right now. Teams are finding all the right answers, usually designing routes to get matchups on the Chiefs’ safeties, who can’t defend in man coverage to save their lives. Brock Bowers was able to win up and down the field against Kansas City’s safeties, which puts defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in a bind. The Chiefs need to blitz to cause chaos, but when their players can’t execute in-man coverage, you’re not able to find answers.

What concerns me is the formula. When the Chiefs did look good to start the year, it felt like they were a balanced two-way team. The defense was elite, and the offense had answers with an elite quarterback. Right now, neither feels true.

So, what is the Chiefs’ winning formula in the playoffs? What side of the ball is going to be able to lead this team to win? Can the defense find answers and carry the team as they did last year to start the year? Will the offense be able to step up and lift a defense like they did for years? Or will both sides of the ball be able to find enough to get back to a more sustainable formula?

It’s not unfair to criticize the Chiefs right now. Yes, wins ultimately are the goal, but process matters for a team trying to win the Super Bowl.

Right now, Kansas City’s process is bad. You want to be peaking at this point of the year, and right now, it feels like they’re declining. To be fair to the Chiefs, they were crashing hard at this point last year, and they found their formula.

I don’t doubt they can find it again, but it will be challenging for this team. If they don’t, this team is not going to be able to win a Super Bowl.

 

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