Can the Bills make the Super Bowl? Here’s Buffalo’s path to its first championship title

The Buffalo Bills are three victories from their first Super Bowl appearance in 31 years.

No. 2 seed Buffalo starts its quest for Super Bowl 59 by hosting the No. 7 seed Denver Broncos in the AFC wild-card round at Highmark Stadium at 1 p.m. Sunday. Denver was the final AFC team to earn a postseason berth.

The game will be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+. Jim Nantz will have the play-by-play with analyst Tony Romo sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson.

Here are all of the scenarios for the Bills in the playoffs.

AFC wild-card games

Saturday, Jan. 11

• No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7), 4:30 p.m., CBS
• No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at No. 2 Baltimore Ravens (12-5), 8 p.m. Prime Video

Sunday, Jan 12

• No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4), 1 p.m., CBS

  Bye: Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

  Who will the Bills play in the divisional round?

  If the Bills defeat the Broncos, they will advance to play the remaining team with the second-lowest seed. The No. 1 seed Chiefs will host the lowest-remaining seed.

Buffalo could host Baltimore, Houston or Los Angeles in the divisional round.

The Bills were only defeated twice in the conference in the regular season – by the Ravens in Week 4 and Texans in Week 5 – but there’s a 75% chance they play one of the teams they lost to in the divisional round. Three of the four possible outcomes pit the Bills against the Ravens or Texans.

The Bills are most likely to play the Ravens, with two of the potential outcomes setting up that matchup. If Baltimore defeats Pittsburgh, it’s Ravens at Bills at Highmark Stadium in the divisional game. The Houston/Los Angeles winner would travel to No. 1 Kansas City.

The divisional round games are Jan. 18-19.

Bills opponent scenarios for AFC divisional round:

• Buffalo win + Baltimore win + Houston win = Buffalo hosts Baltimore
  • Buffalo would play Kansas City/Houston winner in AFC championship
• Buffalo win + Pittsburgh win + Houston win = Buffalo hosts Houston
  • Buffalo would play Kansas City/Pittsburgh winner in AFC championship
• Buffalo win + Baltimore win + Los Angeles win = Buffalo hosts Baltimore
  • Buffalo would play Kansas City/Los Angeles winner in AFC championship
• Buffalo win + Pittsburgh win + Los Angeles win = Buffalo hosts Los Angeles
  • Buffalo would play Kansas City/Pittsburgh winner in AFC championship

Would the Bills play at home in the next round?

No. 2 Buffalo will have home-field advantage if it advances to the divisional round.

Is there an AFC team the Bills can’t play in divisional round?

Buffalo cannot play Pittsburgh or Kansas City in the divisional round.

The Bills would only host the Steelers if both teams advance to the AFC championship, which means Pittsburgh needs to upset Baltimore in the wild-card and Kansas City in the divisional round.

When can the Bills play the Chiefs in the playoffs?

Buffalo can only play Kansas City in the AFC championship. That game would be played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs have knocked the Bills out of the playoffs in three of the last four years.

Can the Bills host the AFC championship game?

Yes. Buffalo would host the AFC championship if it reaches the conference final and Kansas City is one and done and gets ousted from the playoffs in the divisional round. That would leave the Bills as the highest-seeded team remaining in the AFC.

The AFC championship is Jan. 26.

What is the Bills most likely path to the Super Bowl?

Buffalo has eight possible paths to the Super Bowl but two of them, 25%, are the same combination of three opponents.

The most probable route is the Bills host the Ravens in the divisional round and travel to play the Chiefs in the AFC championship. The only difference in that playoff scenario is that Kansas City could dispatch Houston or Los Angeles in the divisional round, which would have no impact on Buffalo’s opponents.

Super Bowl 59 is at 6:30 p.m. on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

These are the seven unique combinations for the Bills to capture a conference title:

• vs. Broncos, vs. Ravens, at Kansas City
• vs. Broncos, vs. Ravens, vs. Houston
• vs. Broncos, vs. Texans, at Kansas City
• vs. Broncos, vs. Texans, vs. Pittsburgh
• vs. Broncos, vs. Ravens, vs. Los Angeles
• vs. Broncos, vs. Chargers, at Kansas City
• vs. Broncos, vs. Chargers, vs. Pittsburgh

What is the Bills path to the Super Bowl if there are no upsets?

If the higher seeds win leading up to the conference championship, here’s how the AFC would play out:

• Wild-card round: Buffalo defeats Denver, Baltimore defeats Pittsburgh, Houston defeats Los Angeles
• Divisional round: Kansas City defeats Houston, Buffalo defeats Baltimore
• Conference championship: Buffalo at Kansas City

Have the Bills won a Super Bowl?

No. The Bills appeared in four straight Super Bowls from 1991-1994 but went 0-4.