Packers’ Playoff Scenarios: After Week 15 Victory, Green Bay Just One Win Away From Securing a Playoff Spot

After defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers sit at 10-4 and in third place in the extremely competitive NFC North.

Let’s look at where the Packers stand in the NFC playoff race with three more games to go in the 2024 NFL season.

Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Situation | Week 15 Update

NFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race

• Rams defeated 49ers, 12-6
• Commanders defeated Saints, 20-19
• Cowboys defeated Panthers, 30-14
• Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
• Cardinals defeated Patriots, 30-17
• Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
• Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
• Packers defeated Seahawks, 30-13
• Falcons defeated Raiders, 15-9
• Vikings defeated Bears, 30-12

According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Green Bay Packers now have a 97.7% chance to make the postseason, and yes, they are still in the NFC North race, with an 8.5% chance to win the division.

Their victory over the Seahawks helps solidify their ground in the NFC playoff race. With a 10-4 record, they are the sixth seed. The Commanders are right behind them with a 9-5 record as the seventh seed.

If the Packers win in Week 16 against the Saints, they are in the playoffs. Could they have clinched a spot in Week 15? Yes, but obviously, it didn’t happen. The only way that Green Bay could have clinched a playoff spot in Week 15 was if they won, the Rams/49ers tied, and if Atlanta lost on Monday night to the Raiders.

This was a long shot since they needed all of these to happen to clinch. Unfortunately for Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football, so the Packers will have to wait at least one more week to punch their ticket to the postseason.

Can the Packers Still Win the NFC North?

The Packers are perfect against every team that currently has a worse record than them, but they’re 0-4 against the three NFC teams ahead of them in the standings: the Detroit Lions (lost twice), Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings.

As a result, Green Bay is looking up at Detroit and Minnesota in the NFC North standings. PFN’s model currently gives the Packers an 8.5% chance of winning the division. They would need a lot of help from the Lions and Vikings.

The Packers’ Week 17 rematch against the Vikings could end up being important if the Lions struggle down the stretch. But since the Lions defeated the Packers twice, they own the tiebreaker over Green Bay, so simply tying Detroit isn’t enough to take the division.

That means the only way the Packers can overtake the division is by winning out and hoping the Lions somehow lose out after winning 11 straight games. The Vikings would also need to lose along the way, as they have a 12-2 record after Week 15.

And then it would come down to Week 18. Since the Vikings and Lions play each other, the Packers — assuming they win their remaining three games — would need Minnesota and Detroit to tie for them to win the NFC North.

It’s worth noting that Green Bay has the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams, as they have the NFL’s 11th-hardest remaining slate, while the Vikings have the fourth-hardest and the Lions have the fifth-hardest.

Still, all signs point to the Packers being a Wild Card team.

Can the Packers Get the No. 1 Seed in the Conference?

The Packers have just a 4% chance of landing the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Again, they would need a lot of help from the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles (the three teams that have defeated them this season). It’s almost impossible at this point, but still not mathematically out of the question.

While the Lions and Vikings choking down the stretch seems unlikely, it would be even more surprising if Philadelphia drops multiple games since they have the NFL’s 11th-easiest remaining schedule.

Green Bay’s odds of securing the No. 1 seed essentially fizzled out with their Week 14 loss to the Lions.