How Eagles can get No. 1 seed in NFC playoffs despite 3-way tie with Lions, Vikings

PHILADELPHIA − It would seem like everything fell the Eagles’ way after they beat the Steelers on Sunday while the Detroit Lions lost to the Buffalo Bills.

That created a three-way tie for the top spot in the NFC after the Vikings beat the Bears on Monday night. The Eagles, Lions and Vikings are all 12-2 with three games remaining, meaning that the battle for the top seed is very much in play.

But the Eagles are still on the outside looking in for that No. 1 seed because of tiebreakers. So if the standings remain the same heading into the regular-season finale, the Eagles won’t get the No. 1 seed (see below).

In that case, the Eagles will likely treat that Jan. 5 game against the Giants as their bye week, and thus go into the playoffs as the No. 2 seed (more on that below). They’ll rest many of their key players, including Saquon Barkley, who’s chasing the NFL’s single-season rushing record.

The No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye, while the Nos. 2 through 7 seeds start the playoffs the weekend of Jan. 11-13.

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said he’s not worrying about that, at least not yet.

“We can’t control anything about the Lions, so our main focus is to control what we can control,” Sirianni said. “I know that’s boring … But our focus is the next game. Our focus is locked in front of us. Our focus is now the Washington Commanders.”

Let’s break down all of the possibilities, starting with the Eagles’ game Sunday against the Commanders.

Can Eagles clinch the NFC East on Sunday?

Yes. They currently hold a three-game lead over the Commanders (9-5) with three games to play. So a win Sunday over the Commanders at Northwest Stadium (formerly FedEx Field) would clinch it.

If the Eagles were to lose to Washington, they can clinch the division with their next win or the Commanders’ next loss.

The Eagles finish the season with home games against the Cowboys (6-8) and Giants (2-12). The Commanders will face the Falcons (7-7) at home and finish at the Cowboys.

What about the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs?

The Eagles will clinch the No. 2 seed as soon as they clinch the NFC East.

That’s because neither Seattle nor Tampa Bay (both 8-6), the division leaders in the NFC West and South, respectively, can catch the Eagles.

As the No. 2 seed, the Eagles would face the No. 7 seed to start the playoffs. At this point, the Eagles’ opponent would be Washington. If the Eagles win, they’d have a home divisional round game against the remaining team with the best record.

If the Eagles are alive for the NFC Championship game, held on Jan. 26, they’d have to travel only if the No. 1 seed is still alive.

Can the Eagles still get the No. 1 seed?

Yes, but the Eagles need help despite the three-way tie.

The Eagles don’t play either the Lions or the Vikings, who are both in the NFC North. So the first two tiebreakers are not in play − head-to-head and best divisional record.

The third tiebreaker is common opponents (minimum of five), and it’s likely that the Eagles will be tied with Detroit and Minnesota there, too.

The Lions, however, hold the fourth tiebreaker over the Eagles, which is conference record. Detroit is 8-1 in the NFC while the Eagles are 7-2. That means that the Lions would have to lose one more game than the Eagles for the Eagles to pass them.

The Lions are at the Chicago Bears (4-10) this Sunday, followed by a road game against the San Francisco 49ers (6-8). They finish at home against the Vikings.

The Eagles and Vikings, meanwhile, are currently tied in conference record. So the fifth tiebreaker is the strength of victory in all games.

The Vikings close with the Seahawks (8-6), Packers (10-4) and Lions. That’s a combined record of 30-12, while the Eagles’ last three opponents are a combined 17-25. So even if the Eagles have the edge now, it’s likely that they won’t if they’re still tied.

So the Vikings would need to lose one more game than the Eagles as well.

What happens if Eagles are in a three-way tie to end the season?

A three-way tie to end the season doesn’t help the Eagles either. Since the Lions and Vikings are in the same division, that tiebreaker is determined first. Then the same principles would apply for a tiebreaker between the Eagles and the NFC North winner.

What would it take for the Eagles to clinch the No. 1 seed?

Realistically, both Detroit and Minnesota would have to lose before the finale while the Eagles win out.

In that scenario, the Eagles would go into the finale with a one-game lead over both the Lions and Vikings. Since the Lions and Vikings play each other, the Eagles would clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over the Giants.

It’s also possible that the Eagles could get the No. 1 seed if either Detroit or Minnesota lose before the finale.

If the Vikings are the ones to lose, then they would have to beat the Lions in the finale for the Eagles to clinch with a win over the Giants. Conversely, if the Lions are the ones to lose, then they would have to beat the Vikings for the Eagles to clinch with a win over the Giants.

But that could backfire for the Eagles if the wrong team wins the finale. So if that’s the scenario going into the final game, it’s likely that the Eagles will rest their starters, and take their chances that the backups can beat the Giants while getting help from the right NFC North team.

If that doesn’t work out, at least the Eagles will have had a pseudo bye week as the No. 2 seed

Why is the No. 1 seed so important in NFL playoffs?

The top seed in each conference has a huge advantage in the playoffs.

That’s because that team would be the only team to get a first-round bye, and home field advantage up until the Super Bowl. The No. 2 seed would have to play the weekend of the first round, and win three games in all to get to the Super Bowl. The No. 1 seed would only have to win two games, and both would be at home.

When and where is the Super Bowl in 2025?

The winners of the NFC and AFC would face each other in the Super Bowl on Feb. 9, 2025 at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.